The NDP: On their last legs?

Has Jack destroyed what is left of the NDP?

In the aftermath of last week's budget vote in Canada's House of Parliament, there was one very interesting event: the complete acquiescence of Jack Layton to the demands of PMPM (Prime Minister Paul Martin).

The media in Canada the loyal liberal lapdogs that they are, have been peddling feveriously to sell NDP supporters and the general public on the Jack and Paul deal. Problem is that this deal stinks from start to finish and it appears that Jack has sold out the NDP, and likely imperiled its very future for what appears to be a very low payoff.

Let us consider the facts here: first the NDP has been in a downward spiral for at least a decade now. NDP fortunes have been on the decline as the party has not returned more than 25 seats to parliament in a long time. Furthermore, their percentage of the popular vote has been weak and lower than traditional levels of prior decades. When Jack Layton was announced as the new leader, his primary job was to reverse this downward trend in the NDP's fortunes, he was the young academic urban hipster that was connected to youth and was seen as a good communicator. His job was to reach out to the urban vote as a method to replace waning union support which had been the primary backbone of NDP muscle for many decades. It appeared that Jack was onto something as he was able to excite the base and he became a darling of the MSM at a time when the NDP needed it most. Furthermore, Jack was able to produce good polling numbers for the NDP before all elections. Sadly for the NDP, this did not translate into more elected party members for two main reasons.

Liberals under pressure from the resurgent conservative party of Canada, began to broaden their base by moving left and right on several fronts as maintaining the middle ground did not guarantee them electoral success anymore. The Liberals found that selecting certain key issues that they could offer to core NDP supporters and for which they had a good chance of actually delivering on, allowed them to draw on the NDP electorate. The other pressure against the NDP base was the steady growth of the Green Party in Canada which was seen as more relevant and daring in many respects as compared to the old and staid NDP brand. The Green's were fresh, different and even exciting in many respects as compared to the NDP, which was attractive to the youth vote which was crucial to the left. Lastly, the Greens seemingly were able to attract a broader base of support with their ecclectic range of policies from fiscal conservatism on some levels, to more accountability in government to environmentalism. Although, the greens are not putting many people in the house yet, they are seen as the heir apparents of the NDP in Canada by many on the left and also by other political observers and pundits.

An example of Liberals eating at the base of NDP support was the recent budget vote which forced Jack Layton to lay down for the liberal interests, and subugate his own and party's interests to those of the Liberals. Jack was also dictated to by Buzz Hargrove the famed Auto Workers Union head in the now murky meeting these two had in the Fairmont Hotel in downtown Toronto several weeks before the vote. It was obvious that Hargrove forced Layton to sleep with the Liberals in order to hand over his support to the NDP, which has in recent years been leaning towards the liberals. Then there is the Greens in the background courting their support also. It seems that there is too many political parties in Canada on the left and they are all fighting over too few supporters.

But the real problem is this: Layton has been very critical of Paul Martin and his government and rightly so, the corruption and sleaze that emanate from parliament these days has been unknown in history in this country. Furthermore, Layton has to be looking over his shoulder at not just the liberals but also the Greens as willing and able to take him and his party down. One would have believed that Jack would have voted to have the Liberals defeated as the NDP was riding high in the polls and many on the left were looking for the opportunity of a square-off between the two left-leaning parties. This was likely one of the last opportunities for the NDP to 'come back' and restore the brand in this country. There was good reason to believe that the NDP under Jack was on the way back and that a breakthrough was just around the corner.

The conservative and Bloc alliance to take down the liberals would have meant that left-wing initiatives would not have been taken off the table and that the conservatives would have had to tread lightly for sometime around the Bloc. Then why did the NDP cuts its own wrists, by giving up the chance to greatly improve their lot vis a vis the liberals and Greens and be seen as the hero's on the left?

Well we all know about the $4.6 Billion in social spending that Layton demanded from Paul Martin which was dictated to Jack by Buzz Hargrove (ostensibly to court union and NDP core support), but none of that money is guaranteed to be spent by passing one budget vote. Also, the precarious state of affairs in Ottawa these days makes any deal look about as certain as the Maple Leafs winning the Stanley Cup in 2006 (if there is even pro-hockey in 2005/6 to begin with).

But there is other rumours going around that may explain what happened, one is that the NDP is absolutely broke and cannot afford an election now. Annother rumour even more dangerous is that the NDP has agreed to merge with the liberals and they are working on the details. If this is so then this whole story is not a fable. On the other hand, if the NDP is still standing on its own two feet, then it needs to start looking out for itself more instead of making desperate moves to cut conservatism off at the knees at any cost - even its own future. If they don't start seeing the big picture with them in it and stop obsessing about political ideology then the Liberals will swallow their base or the Greens will take them out. Sayonnara!