MP O'Brien throws wrench into night of confidence votes

Last Updated Tue, 14 Jun 2005 17:31:35 EDT
CBC News

London-Fanshawe MP Pat O'Brien has issued an ultimatum, saying he and an unnamed Liberal MP will vote against the minority Liberal government in a series of confidence votes Tuesday night unless the same-sex marriage bill is delayed.
-this is more like it! finally a liberal that stands up!

If they carry out the threat, Paul Martin's government could fall, pushing the country into a summer election campaign. O'Brien, who left the Liberal caucus this month to sit as an Independent over the gay-marriage issue, told CBC News that he will continue negotiating with Liberal officials in the hours before the voting begins at 10 p.m. EDT.
-they know what we want, guaranteed protection for all religious institutions

"I met with two senior elected MPs from the Liberal party earlier today," said O'Brien on CBC's Politics. "I suspect I will meet with them and others later." He wants a promise, in writing, that the passage of the same-sex marriage bill will not happen until after Parliament resumes in the fall.
-even better as this allows us to mobilize against it!

INDEPTH: Divided Parliament http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/election2005/index.html

O'Brien did not say which Liberal member of Parliament is joining him in seeking the delay. At least five confidence votes will take place late Tuesday night as the House of Commons tries to pass the federal budget before the summer recess.
-a hot summer indeed!

The votes deal with the government's main budget bill and approval of operational funds. The Liberals have 133 seats in the House of Commons, including Speaker Peter Milliken, who will vote only to break a tie. That's followed by the Conservatives with 98, the Bloc Québécois with 54, and the New Democrats with 19. There are four Independents, including O'Brien.
The combined Liberal-NDP alliance gives the government 151 votes, or 150 if one of the Liberal MPs votes against the government.
-nobody is sure of what Cadman is doing or if Grewal is showing up (quite likely I'd say..), then there is the prospect of LPC vote buying... but they may be hesitant this time though.

The Bloc-Tory alliance has 152 votes. But three Tories are ill, including MP Gurmant Grewal, who is on stress leave, and are not expected to make the vote. One BQ member will be absent, said party whip Michel Guimond. That leaves the opposition camp with 148 votes. Of the four Independent MPs:
Former Liberal Carolyn Parrish has said she will support the government.
Chuck Cadman, who voted with the Liberals in the last confidence vote, has cancer and is not expected to be in the House.
-we will see .. what Chucky does!

Former Liberal David Kilgour may back the Tories as he did in the May 19 vote.
-I also expect that he would vote against the liberals also.

That could leave the last Independent, O'Brien, and the unnamed Liberal MP holding the government's fate in their hands.
-Yes and I bet that it could be more than two defectors too.

FROM MAY 19, 2005: Government survives 2 confidence votes
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/05/19/second-confidence050519.html

Martin's minority government barely survived a confidence vote on the budget May 19 after Milliken broke a tie vote by casting his ballot for the government.
-gee what about the illegal vote buying by the liberals? CBC?

Although Conservatives say they're pushing for a strong attendance by their members for Tuesday night's votes, they appear to have lost their enthusiasm for an immediate election.
-depends who you talk too, I'd say.

Polls have shown their popularity has plummeted in recent weeks.
-a poll a few days ago only showed them 8 points behind the liberals nationally, so where are you getting your information?